Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
My research covers topics in international, financial, and labor economics. CV.
Contact Information:
109 David Kinley Hall
1407 Gregory Drive
Urbana, IL 61801
Email: msora@illinois.edu
Publications
Macroprudential Policy for Internal Financial Dollarization (with Aleksei Oskolkov).
Journal of International Economics, 2023, Volume 143. Working paper version.
We study macroprudential policy aimed at domestic debt denominated in different currencies. We model a small open economy with entrepreneurs and workers who save and borrow in domestic and foreign currency. Financial frictions make dollar debt on entrepreneurs' balance sheets especially disruptive when the exchange rate depreciates. Falling output causes additional depreciation; this amplification provides a rationale for de-dollarization. On the other hand, de-dollarization is costly because the dollar savings of domestic workers provide them with insurance. We characterize the social marginal benefits and costs of de-dollarization in this context. The social marginal costs are associated with a deterioration in risk-sharing and can be expressed in terms of the interest rate premium on domestic currency assets. We find that these costs are of second order around the unregulated equilibrium but play a role for optimal policy.
Working papers
Using detailed loan-level data from Chile, we document significant geographic differences in interest rates for firm loans. Firms in cities with high borrowing costs pay around 280 basis points more than firms in low-cost cities. While these estimates account for differences in firm and loan characteristics across cities, we find evidence that they are related to the level of concentration in the local loan market. We examine the pass-through of monetary policy to lending rates and find that banks with higher local market shares exhibit stronger pass-through, aligning with models of oligopolistic branch competition.
Work in progress
The Spatial Distribution of Bank Branches and Domestic Capital Flows (with Olivia Bordeu and Gustavo González).
How does the spatial distribution of bank branches shape the allocation of capital across cities? Using data from Chile, we show that localized deposit shocks lead to an increase in lending and a reduction in interest rates for banks with branches in the exposed areas, indicating that the boundary of the bank matters. We develop a novel quantitative spatial model with frictions in interbank lending and oligopolistic local credit markets that rationalizes our empirical findings. In our quantitative model, interbank frictions increase the spatial dispersion of the marginal product of capital and reduce GDP by 0.3 percent. Local market power in lending reduces aggregate GDP by 6.9 percent. Bank mergers improve financial integration across cities at the cost of reduced competition in the banking industry. The welfare effects of mergers range between -5.7% and +0.6%, depending on the geographic footprint of the merging banks.
Labor Reallocation during Booms: The Role of Duration Uncertainty
I build a model to study how uncertainty about the duration of sectoral booms shapes labor mobility. Workers accumulate sector-specific human capital on the job, creating an option value to entering booming sectors: if the boom lasts, returns are high; if it ends, workers switch out. Duration uncertainty can therefore attract or deter entry. The model predicts that risk-loving behavior is more likely when human capital returns are high in the booming sector
We study the currency invoicing decision of Peruvian exporters during a period of de-dollarization of the national financial system. Between 1993 and 2007 the macroeconomy stabilized and the uncovered interest parity, the premium on local currency debt, fell. We study how exporters responded to the change in the relative price of debt in different currencies by shifting the currency in which they invoiced their exports. This sheds light on the link between the roles that the dollar plays globally in finance and trade. Differential debt requirements by sector allow us to isolate the effect of this mechanism.
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